By Ambassador Archil Gegeshidze

Over the past decade Georgia has gone through rapid and profound change, not only regaining its independence, but also embarking on a path of social and economic transition. As the nation pursues its quest for peace, stability and prosperity an analyst must ask if the society has a vision, and necessary resources, to reach these goals, particularly with the ever-present geopolitical, and other, preconditions as obstacles.

The Georgia Foundation for Strategic and International Studies is one of the region’s most respected policy development organizations. Pictured from left to right: Archil Gegeshidze, senior fellow, Alexander Rondeli, president and Temuri Yakobashvili, executive vice-president.

A troubled history
Situated in a geographic buffer zone between Russia, Turkey and Iran, Georgia has always had to strike a careful balance in external relations. The dominant force for the past two centuries has been the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union, a constant source of ethnic and other tensions. The Soviet experience is the cause for the absence of a diversified economy, along with the source of the totalitarian legacy, the major impediment to progress towards a market economy.

Georgia’s own natural deficiencies (still-to-be discovered oil deposits and, as yet, unearthed precious minerals and other valuable natural resources) and a certain innocence about the external world are principal areas of strategic weakness. Georgia’s historical gravitation towards European and to western values have naively been considered the gateway to the Western Community, often causing inattention to development of other potential competitive advantages. “Strategic idealism,” a term first used by the Georgian scholar Alex Rondeli, has often led to internal conflict with separatist struggles damaging the economy and polluting Georgian politics.

Challenges for Eduard Shevardnadze as “nation saver”
For several years in the 1990s the leadership of President Eduard Shevardnadze brought relative stabilization. There was a financial turnaround, relative stability and the development of Georgia as a leader in transport of energy from Central Asia and the Caspian Sea to the West.

But in 1998 the picture turned dark. The Russian financial crisis of 1998 cast a bleak shadow. An assassination attempt against Shevardnadze contributed to the gloom and seemed to symbolize a fading of the political will to govern. Many problems remain inadequately addressed, most crucial being the failure of the state to consolidate its finances largely due to issues of governance and corruption. The huge level of corruption puts in doubt the effective functioning of state institutions, hinders development of business and foreign investment, undermines the credibility of Government and erodes the moral foundations of civil society.

In addition other major issues present challenges: Globalization has come to Georgia but a weak telecommunications infrastructure makes the nation slow to benefit. International terrorist networks operate in the region of Georgia bordering with Chechnya. The attributes that make Georgia a favorable partner for the West make the nation a target for Russia as part of the global competition for resources. Existing ethno-political conflicts in the South Caucasus often make the area a region of conflict instead of cooperation.

Georgia matters to the West
On the other hand, it is extremely fortunate that Georgia receives strong moral and political support from most of the leading Western countries. For, given both the complexity of the geopolitical environment and the lack of domestic political and financial resources to effectively address the problems, it is unlikely that Georgia would manage to exploit its advantages and achieve its national goals without strong support from the international community. Fortunately, over the past ten years Georgia has received more than $1.5 billion from international donors. The United States has provided more than $800 million, making Georgia among the largest per capita global recipients of US foreign aid. Other major donors include Germany, Great Britain, Netherlands, Turkey, France and Italy. In addition very large sums have been loaned by the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the European Union.

What counts to the West, beyond basic humanitarian concerns, can be identified:
• International prestige of President Shevardnadze. He is clearly committed to the idea that Georgia should be a democratic country. But, as the President’s second, and constitutionally final, term comes to an end in 2005, the “Shevardnadze factor” will decline as the international community re-designs its Georgia policy.

• Containing Russia. Despite the new rapprochement between Russia and the West since the September 11th terrorist attacks, the full incorporation of Russia into the Western Community will come only after that nation fully accepts the civilized norms of domestic and international conduct. Russia’s nostalgia for its imperial past is often demonstrated by its rough policies towards the South Caucasus nations. This is the primary reason why Georgia seeks close security ties with the West and vice-versa. As Russia, hopefully, evolves into a genuine democracy, Georgia will willingly part with this role.

• Promoting peace in the region. The international community gives high marks to Georgia for its peace-promoting potential and its efforts to support regional cooperation.

• Gateway to East-West Transport Corridor. Georgia was the first to advocate the concept of what has become the Eurasian Transport Corridor and the New Silk Road. This developed into launching of several Caspian pipeline projects and a broad regional program of communication and transportation planning and cooperation.

• Diffusing Democracy into Eurasia. Like the Balkans, Middle East, South and South-East Asia, the region of the Caucasus and Central Asia is a proving ground for settling conflicts, building democratic institutions, establishing market economies and breaking old stereotypes and establishing new values. These developments take on increasing importance as new challenges of globalization, including international terrorism, emerge. Despite blemishes, Georgia has so far proved to be most susceptible to democratic change in the region.

Parliamentary elections in 2003 and, more important, the Presidential election in 2005, will provide a test of the stability of Georgian democracy. Of course if the country fails to succeed with elections and democratic reforms, it will lose much of the support from the international community. Therefore the nation needs a comprehensive strategy for transformation into a stable democracy with guaranteed sovereignty and a strong economy. Friendly nations, particularly the United States, should help develop the new agenda. At the moment, it is unclear which political leaders will emerge to seize the leadership role and bring a vision around which the country can unite.

Archil Gegeshidze, former National Security Advisor, with the rank of Ambassador, is a long time leader in Georgian government foreign policy development. Currently he is Senior Fellow at the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies, a leading Tbilisi-based independent think tank.